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01 November 2004

Linkpimpin' Verisimilitude



Election Prediction


Wishful thinking? Mostly.

Although I will quite happily admit to selection bias in the news media that I choose to sample, I have recently come across some Kerry endorsements from relatively unexpected sources. As well as being one itself, the excellent Being Daddy site posted a catalogue of some of the more notable, unexpected Kerry endorsements, some from otherwise quite conservative sources.

Also there’s the eeire predictive powers of American Football (woooo spooooooky! wiggly fingers wiggly fingers).

There are also a lot more voters turning out for registration - I’m assuming this is good for Kerry. Also there are more swing states, including my once-home Colorado and the Kingdom of the Mole Men!

Of course none of this is terribly definitive. Hence I’m still mentally preparing for a second Bush term by asking: how much worse could it get? (Answer: a lot)

And whichever candidate eventually wins, it seems to me almost certain that the result will not be clear-cut. In fact, a tie is not out of the question. If the stakes weren’t so high, it would be good entertainment.


Posted by
2004-11-01 08:51:13 -0600

A tie? No, it wouldn’t be good entertainment. A tie gives the presidency to Bush, barring some very unlikely outcomes in the congressional races.